In the last days, in internet there are people who are pretty worried about a war between Russia and Ukraine. Well, to be honest, the situation is pretty bad, but how bad is it? There will be a war in Europe? What does Russia wants? Well, i am not an expert, but there are a couple of things i don’t really understand!
What Does Russia Want From Ukraine?
In my stupid opinion, the last thing Russia wants is a war. No, I’m not a romantic, but just look the situation. In this moment, we have the N.A.T.O., with Europe and United States one one side (28 countries and almost all the most industrialized country in the world) and on the other side just one country: Russia. Although Russia is big, there’s no chance it will win a fight with the western part of the world. Why? Well, because Russia needs Europe more than Europe needs Russia, If U.S.A. and Europe decide to set an Embargo against Russia, Russia will suffer. Russia might be strong with the Army, but economy not so much.
However, Russia have a freaking fear to have the United States at the front door. How? Well, because Ukraine wants to join the N.A.T.O. Which means that the U.S.A. can have free military access to Ukraine. And Ukraine shares the border with Russia. During the Cold War, there was for Russia all the satellites country, like Romania, for example, to “use” to prevent that United Stated can march to Moscow. Now this defense strategy is no longer available. So, Putin has started this strategy against Ukraine, because it doesn’t want America right at the front door.
There Will Be a War in Ukraine?
As i said, Russia doesn’t want to start a war. It can’t afford it. Even Europe and United Stated don’t want a war. However, Europe and U.S.A. are in a better position. They are more powerful military, economically, strategically and technologically. Alone, Russia is not in the position to do anything against some of the best army in the world.
I don’t even think there will be a nuclear war. Russia and United States know that with a nuclear war there will no be any world. So, any population or country to control. It will be a “normal war”, that Russia probably will not win.
There’s another reason why Russia will not fight a war. As i said, if Russia loses, there are high chances that United States, together with the N.A.T.O. can attack Russia directly, just because now they have a place to start (Ukraine). Napoleon and Hitler have failed because they have started a little bit too far away. If the N.A.T.O. can “conquer” the Ukraine, for Russia it will be a nightmare.
Well, Since Russia is the offender, Europe can easily start a economical war, trough Embargoes and sanctions, that will put the Russian economy on its knee. Maybe Russia will not be allowed to buy European product and Europe will not buy Russian product anymore. Maybe Russian people are not allowed to earn money in Europe and so on. As i said, we can survive without Russia. Can Russia survive without Europe? I don’t think so.
Putin is doing what is doing, because Europe and United States are watching the situation. As soon as the whole thing will get more serious, for Russia will be the beginning of the end. Yes, maybe they will conquer a couple of territory, but the economy will collapse sooner than later.
There would not be a global war. Anyone has any kind of interest in fighting. If there are now separatists who wants to be together with Russia, does not that mean that now we are gonna have a war. Right now, only Russia have recognized the “new republic”. The entire world doesn’t and will never do that! So, don’t worry. In few weeks, everything will be fine again.